Just two months in the past when the young forward found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered as the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely far more favourable. When the in-form star curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Hopefuls?
That’s a rather hard question to answer. The historical record, the traditional standing of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
According to statistical analysis, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side which has just won 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – however currently the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with rivals and then rely on Rogers to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more versus United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. In the recent win, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge the club must confront as the season progresses. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on blasting his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs may yet rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, no one envisioned the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
