Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
